Publication: Sermaye Akımlarına Yönelik Ekonomi Politikaları Ve Oyun Teorisi Uygulaması
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Date
2021
Authors
Yüksel, Şerif
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Abstract
Bu çalışma sermaye akımlarına yönelik ülkelerin ortak strateji ve ekonomi politika yürütmelerinin geçerliliğini araştırmak amacı ile yapılmıştır. Ortak fayda doğrultusunda hareket etmenin özellikle kırılgan ekonomiye sahip ülkeler için yabancı sermaye akımlarının ani giriş ve çıkış hareketlerine olan etkisi ve yabancı sermayenin buna tepkisi araştırılmıştır. Araştırma yöntemi olarak oyun teorisi kullanılmıştır. Karma Strateji ve toplamı sıfır olmayan oyun kurulmuştur. Değişkenler olarak Faiz, Enflasyon ve Büyüme verileri oyuna dahil edilmiştir. Oyun “Kırılgan Beşli” olarak isimlendirilen Brezilya, Endonezya, Hindistan, Güney Afrika ve Türkiye arasında oynanmıştır. Yatırımcı oyunda seçilen ülkeler arasında sermayesinin yönüne karar vermesi hususunda serbest bırakılmıştır. Oyun cebirsel yöntem ile çözülmüş ve ulaşılan kat sayının sermaye hareketleri karşısındaki etkinliği araştırılmıştır. Oyun sonucunda ülkeler ortak strateji ve ekonomi politikaları izlediklerinde sermayenin hareketleri ile oyun sonucunda bulunan kat sayı arasında eş anlı hareketler gözlenmiştir. Aynı zamanda oyun geleceği tahmin etme hususunda başarısız kalacağı düşünülmüştür. Oyun teorisi uygulaması ülkeler arasında daha çok değişken ve varsayım altında oynanması koşulunda oyunun ortak politika üretmede başarılı olabileceği düşünülmektedir.
This study was carried out with the aim of investigating the validity of the common strategy and economic policy implementations of countries on capital flows. The effect of moving in the direction of mutual benefit, especially the countries with fragile economies, has been influenced by the sudden entry and exit movements of foreign capital flows and the reaction of foreign capital has been investigated. Game theory was used as a research method. Mixed Strategy and game with non-zero sum installed. Interest, Inflation and Growth data as variables are included in the game. The game "Fragile Five", known as Brazil, Indonesia, India, was played between South Africa and Turkey. The investor is free to decide the direction of the capital among the selected countries in the vote. The game was solved by an algebraic method and the effect of the number of floors reached on capital movements was investigated. At the end of the game, when the countries watched common strategy and economic policies, there was a similar movement between the movements of the capital and the number of floors in the game result. At the same time the game is thought to fail to predict the future. It is thought that the game can succeed in generating a common policy if the application of game theory is played by more variables and assumptions among countries.
This study was carried out with the aim of investigating the validity of the common strategy and economic policy implementations of countries on capital flows. The effect of moving in the direction of mutual benefit, especially the countries with fragile economies, has been influenced by the sudden entry and exit movements of foreign capital flows and the reaction of foreign capital has been investigated. Game theory was used as a research method. Mixed Strategy and game with non-zero sum installed. Interest, Inflation and Growth data as variables are included in the game. The game "Fragile Five", known as Brazil, Indonesia, India, was played between South Africa and Turkey. The investor is free to decide the direction of the capital among the selected countries in the vote. The game was solved by an algebraic method and the effect of the number of floors reached on capital movements was investigated. At the end of the game, when the countries watched common strategy and economic policies, there was a similar movement between the movements of the capital and the number of floors in the game result. At the same time the game is thought to fail to predict the future. It is thought that the game can succeed in generating a common policy if the application of game theory is played by more variables and assumptions among countries.
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Keywords
Sermaye Akımları, Finansal Serbestleşme, Ekonomi Politikaları, Oyun Teorisi, Karma Stratejili Oyunlar, Capital Flows, Financial Liberalization, Economy Policies, Game Theory, Mixed Strategy Game