Analyzing the Impacts of Mucilage in the Sea of Marmara: A System Dynamics Approach Integrating Sustainability Perspectives

Abstract

The Sea of Marmara has experienced a critical mucilage explosion during the years 2020 and 2021. The existing studies emphasize the inevitability of serious negative economic consequences of the issue on sectors such as fisheries, tourism and maritime transport. Various policies are suggested on the solution of the problem; however, to the best of our knowledge, there is no study to determine the socio-economic effects of such policies in terms of sustainability through a mathematical method. In this study, a simulation model based on system dynamics to analyze the effects of the mucilage explosion seen in the Sea of Marmara on fisheries, tourism and maritime transport is proposed. The proposed model enables the decision makers to examine the complex relationships between factors leading to mucilage, the level of the explosion, and fisheries, tourism and maritime transportation sectors. The simulation results display critical levels of mucilage if no precautions are taken. The model also allows examining policies aimed at preventing mucilage risk and eliminating the negative impacts on the above-mentioned three sectors considering environmental sustainability. Out of the four different policies, it is displayed that policies focusing on decreasing total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads in the sea seem to be the most appropriate ones for the sustainable solution of the mucilage problem. Apart from enabling the decision-makers to explore the impacts of different policies on handling the issue, with this study, the system dynamics approach has been applied for the very first time on the mucilage problem in the literature.