T.C. ISTANBUL KÜLTÜR UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE OF GRADUATE STUDIES THE NEW WORLD ORDER: FALL OF UNILATERALISM AND THE RISE OF PLURALISM MA Thesis by Raghda Alyeh 1900006236 Department: International Relations Program: International Relations Supervisor: Prof. Dr. İbrahim Mensur Akgün JULY 2023 T.C. İSTANBUL KÜLTÜR UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE OF GRADUATE STUDIE THE NEW WORLD ORDER: FALL OF UNILATERALISM AND THE RISE OF PLURALISM MA Thesis by Raghda Alyeh 1900006236 Department: International Relations Programme: International Relations Supervisor: Prof. Dr. İbrahim Mensur Akgün Members of Examining Committee: Asst. Prof. Dr. Nazlı Çağın Bilgili Prof. Dr. Halit Burç Aka JULY 2023 i Acknowledgment: I would like to thank my family for their invaluable support and suggestions, which made it easier for me to complete this work. I also appreciate my supervisor, Prof. Dr. İbrahim Mensur Akgün, for his constant guidance and never-ending supply of stimulating assignments. His modest attitude to science and research is admirable. His straightforward yet apparent writing style, which I strive to imitate throughout my work, is indicative of this strategy. I will always be appreciative of his advice. Dedication: This Thesis dedicated to the souls of the martyrs of the 2023 Türkiye earthquake. Raghda Alyeh ii Üniversite : İstanbul Kültür Üniversitesi Enstitü : Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü Dalı : Uluslararası İlişkiler Programı : Uluslararası İlişkiler Tez Danışmanı : Prof. Dr. İbrahim Mensur Akgün Tez Türü ve Tarihi : Yüksek Lisans –Temmuz-2023 ÖZET: 1945'teki II, Dünya Savaşı'ndan ve 1991'de Sovyetler Birliği'nin dağılmasından sonra, Birleşik Devletler askeri ve ekonomik açıdan güçlü bir ulus-devlet olarak kaldı. Amerikan yumuşak gücü ayrıca demokrasi, evrensel insan hakları ve dünya düzeni ilkelerinin kurulmasına yardımcı oldu. Bununla birlikte, uluslararası normların altında işlediği ABD ve Avrupa tarafından desteklenen liberal uluslararası düzen veya Batılı değerler tehdit altındadır. Egemenlik, toprak bütünlüğü, uluslararası insancıl hukuk, demokratik değerler ve ekonomik liberalizm gibi normlar tehdit altında. Çin, Hindistan ve Rusya gibi yükselen güçler, küresel siyasette ABD hegemonyasına meydan okuyor. Amerika Birleşik Devletleri'nin İran'ın nükleer programını geliştirmesini engelleyememesi, Rusya'nın Ukrayna'yı işgal etmesi, Çin ile Tayvan arasındaki gerilimler, Amerikan kuvvetlerinin Afganistan'daki başarısızlığı, Amerika'nın Suriye'deki savaşı bitirememesi vb. Amerikan hegemonyasının ne kadar güçlü olduğunu gösteriyor düşüş içerisinde. Bu araştırma, tek taraflılığın düşüşünün ve çoğulculuğun yükselişinin ardındaki ekonomik, politik ve sosyal faktörleri araştırıyor. Bu araştırma dört bölümden oluşacaktır. Doğal olarak, ilk bölüm konuya bir giriş, araştırma sorusu, hipotezler, veri toplama ve analiz metodolojisi, çalışmanın önemi veya önemi ve argümanların üzerine inşa edileceği teorik çerçeveyi içerecektir. İkinci bölümde, bir araştırma boşluğu oluşturmak için Amerikan hegemonyasının gerileyişine ilişkin bir literater taraması sunulacaktır. Üçüncü ve en önemli kısım çalışmanın analizi olacaktır. 3. Bölümde hipotezlerimizi test edeceğiz. Ardından dördüncü bölüm, sonuç ve öneriler. Anahtar Kelimeler: Hegemonyası, Uluslararası ilişkiler, çok taraflılık, yumuşak güç. iii University : Istanbul Kultur University Institute : Institute of Graduate Studies Department : International Relations Programme : International Relations Supervisor : Prof. Dr. İbrahim Mensur Akgün Degree and Date : MA- July 2023 ABSTRACT: After World War II in 1945 and the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, the United States remains militarily and economically a powerful nation-state; American soft power has also helped to establish democratic principles, universal human rights, and world order. However, the liberal international order or western values promoted by the USA and Europe under which international norms operate are threatened. Norms like sovereignty and territorial integrity, international humanitarian law, democratic values, and economic liberalism are under risk. Rising powers like China, India, and Russia challenge US hegemony in world politics. The inability of the US to stop Iran from developing its nuclear program, Russian invasion of Ukraine, China-Taiwan tensions, the failure of American troops in Afghanistan, the American failure to end the war in Syria, etc. demonstrate how US hegemonic power is in decline. This research will investigate economic, political, and social factors behind the fall of unilateralism and the rise of pluralism. This research will have four chapters. Naturally, chapter one will include an introduction to the topic, a research question, hypotheses, the methodology to gather and analyze data, the significance or importance of the study, and the theoretical framework within which the arguments will be based. Chapter two will present a literature review about the decline of the USA hegemony to formulate a research gap. Chapter three, the most important chapter, will constitute the analysis of the work. We will test our hypotheses in chapter three. And then chapter 4 will be the concluding chapter and recommendations. Keywords: Hegemony, International Relations, Pluralism, Soft power. iv Table of Contents Dedication:..................................................................................................................................................... i özet:................................................................................................................................................................ ii Abstract: ...................................................................................................................................................... iii List of Abbreviations .............................................................................................................................. vi 1. Chapter I ................................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1. The Hegemonic Role: ............................................................................................................. 4 1.1.2. Research questions ................................................................................................................ 5 1.1.3. Significant of the Research .................................................................................................... 6 1.1.4. Purpose of the Research ........................................................................................................ 6 1.1.5. Scope of Research .................................................................................................................. 7 1.1.6. Limitation of research ............................................................................................................ 7 1.1.7. Hypotheses ............................................................................................................................ 7 1.1.8. Research Method................................................................................................................... 7 1.2. Theoretical and Conceptual Framework ....................................................................................... 8 1.2.1. Conceptual Framework: Defining key concepts. ................................................................... 8 1.2.2. Theoretical Framework .......................................................................................................... 9 2. Chapter 2 Literature Review ................................................................................................................ 12 2.1. New World Order......................................................................................................................... 12 2.2. The New, New World Order ........................................................................................................ 13 2.3. The New World Order of China ................................................................................................... 17 2.3.1. Taiwan Issue......................................................................................................................... 19 2.3.2. Asia-Pacific Case .................................................................................................................. 22 2.3.3. Belt and Road Initiative........................................................................................................ 24 2.4. Important Books and Publications on the “New” New World Order"Stepping away from the abyss: a gradual approach towards a new security system in the Persian Gulf (2021) .......................... 32 2.4.1. Globalization and the changing liberal international order: A Review of the Literature .... 34 2.4.2. Power Transition and US-China Conflicts (2006) ................................................................. 35 2.4.3. Integrating Theories of international regimes..................................................................... 37 2.4.4. Rising Powers and International Institutions....................................................................... 39 3. Chapter 3 Analysis ............................................................................................................................... 42 3.1. Rising powers are challenging the US economic hegemony in international politics................. 42 v 3.1.1. US Economy Outlook ........................................................................................................... 42 3.1.2. International Politics and Dollar .......................................................................................... 44 3.1.3. The Decline in Importance of the Dollar as a world currency ............................................. 45 3.1.4. US Geopolitical are in decline. ............................................................................................. 51 3.1.5. American culture decline ..................................................................................................... 53 3.2. China, the Number 1 Cause and Challenge to US Hegemony in International Political ............. 54 3.2.1. Outlook of the Economy of China........................................................................................ 54 3.2.2. What is China's global plan? ................................................................................................ 56 3.2.3. Why Is Grand Strategy Important? ...................................................................................... 58 3.2.4. The Unresolved Issue ........................................................................................................... 60 3.2.5. Governance and System ...................................................................................................... 63 3.2.6. Chinese Culture Influence .................................................................................................... 65 3.3 . U.S.- China Relations .................................................................................................................... 65 3.3.1. The U.S.- China facing a new cold war between unipolarity and a multipolar world. ........ 69 3.4. BRICS Member States, an Opportunity for a Multipolar Word, and a Threat to USA Hegemony 72 4. Chapter 4 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................... 75 References: ................................................................................................................................................. 84 vi List of Abbreviations Belt and road initiative BRI Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa BRICS Balance of payments BOP Corona Virus Disease of 2019. COVID-19 Chinese Communist Party CCP closed-circuit television CCTV Computer-mediated communication CMC European Union EU Gross Domestic Product GPD International relations IR International Civil Aviation Organization ICAO International Monetary Fund IMF The North Atlantic Treaty Organization NATO People's Republic of China PRC Purchasing power parity PPP Personal Protective Equipment PPE Product listing ad PLA Resource Efficient and Cleaner Production RECP Special Economic Zones SEZ System Analysis Program Development SAP Silicon Valley bank SVB United Nations UN World Trade Organization WTO Independent fiscal institutions IFIS 1 1. Chapter I 1.1. Introduction The world system relied on three main structures in its stages of development from the middle of the seventeenth century until now: pluralism, bipolarity, and unipolarity. Multipolarity is characterized by the presence of several countries or major poles that have equal resources, capabilities, and capabilities in terms of strength and ability to exert influence and influence in international relations in various political, economic, technological, and other fields, in a way that enables each of these polar powers to attract lesser or weaker countries. (McEachern, 2015). Bipolarity is characterized by the concentration of power and influence relations in the vicinity of two giant polar powers, the presence of a high degree of conflict and competition between these two powers, and the long distances between each of them and its allied countries, and other countries of the world with regard to the elements and capabilities of power. In bipolarity, there is usually an ideological struggle between the two main poles, each using their own ideology. The fall of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War marked a milestone in the development of the international system and international relations. It marked the end of the collapse of the Eastern camp and communist ideology, and the end of its influence on the world marked the beginning of a "new world order”. (Casey, 2012) Since 1991, the world has witnessed the birth of a new world, such as the collapse of international relations governed by bipolarity, as the end of the Cold War was declared with the official dissolution of the Soviet Union at the end of that year, and the birth of the "new" world. A global scene governed by the unilateral visions and practices of the international system in its American phase. American technology also led to a unilateral policy of the United States in strategic planning and political decision-making without sufficient consultation from the rest of its European allies, and this was accompanied by the emergence of new interests of the United States in new directions, including its orientation. to unilateral military action, although this is often done under the cover of international legitimacy. (Jeapes, 2015) 2 This was done by relying on a set of ideas, strategies, and theories that emerged after the Cold War, which are considered the correct intellectual reference for American unipolarity, as these theories, ideas, and strategies have a major as well as a strategic role in the hegemony and superiority of the United States at the head of the political system. After the Cold War, especially since the United States has many intellectual centers in which these thinkers work, in addition to that they worked during a period of their lives in many decision-making centers in the United States, and these centers, including the thinkers they belong to, often They are associated with decision-making centers, as they are often commissioned by the US government to prepare strategic reports that show the way to the decision-maker. All of this works to perpetuate the United States and its survival and uniqueness at the top of the international pyramid. (Wills, 2006) In addition to the penetration of the neo-conservative group in power. Since the arrival of former US President Reagan to power and then their complete control of power with former US President George Bush Jr. assuming power, their ideas focused on the survival of the United States alone and dominance in the international system, as well as preventing any hostile international force from ascending to the top of the international system and then Competition with the United States. (Hastedt, 2009) This group had a role in the wars waged by the United States during the two terms of President Bush Jr.'s term, especially the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. All of these things, in turn, constituted an intellectual reference adopted by the decision-maker in his foreign policy at the level of the international system, and thus the survival of unipolarity in its American form dominating the international system. This intellectual reference would not have reached this level of influence had it not been for the existence of a set of elements of material power upon which the United States of America relied in imposing its polarization on the international system. The United States of America emerged victorious from World War II, through the most powerful economy in the world, both in terms of gross national product, which was the highest or in terms of average per capita income, which is also the highest in the world, as well as its dominance in the trinity of the international economy (the Monetary Fund The World Bank and the World Trade Organization), which are the main pillars of the US economy at the level of the international system, as well as multinational companies that are considered octopuses in the 3 space of the global economy, as well as the global position of the dollar as the United States worked to link the global economy to the US dollar through the Bretton Woods system, in addition to dominating many of the world's energy sources, which helps perpetuate its polarization over the international system. (Vermengo, 2021). In addition to its military power, which is not matched by military power in the world, the United States invested heavily in its military capabilities following World War II and throughout the Cold War, creating a large and powerful military arsenal. It is the highest country in the world in terms of military tunnels and an advanced nuclear arsenal. very big. An external military arm is the main arm in its domination of the international system, which is NATO, on which it relies in its military missions. In addition to a high technological ability, whether technical or informational, through which it was able to control the global media through its high informational capacity, addition to tangible technology, whether civil or military, which reached the point of dealing with nanotechnology. which is the smallest detail in high technology. All this is supported by a political decision at the level of the international system, whether in terms of passing and implementing its decisions or in terms of obstructing the decisions of other powers, through the possession of its permanent seat in the Security Council, which is considered one of the basic elements for its continued domination of the international political system. (Walker, 2018) All these elements do not preclude the existence of challenges that impede the continuity of its polarization, whether on the internal or external level or even at the level of its interventions in the world, which in turn undermines its ability to remain dominant at the international level. The American system suffers from internal challenges represented by challenges on the economic level as well as challenges on the social level, in addition to external challenges facing the United States of America at the level of the international system through the emergence and rise of major powers that compete with the United States. (Muggah, 2018) And its competition is at the top of the international system, which makes the international system at its peak more comprehensive. This, in turn, causes the international system to undergo transformations that may lead to a change in its structure, which prompts us to present and put forward the possibilities that the international system is expected to transform into in the future. 4 It is important to mention important signs of the development of the new international order. China is aware of its common interest with the West, and therefore it supports the global capitalist system and its stability, out of concern for its economic interests, because the collapse of such a system could destroy the Chinese economy as well. Russia is keen on its relations with its allies in the world, and this explains its position on the crisis of the Syrian civil war, in which Russia was able to bring about a change in the positions and policies of the United States and the West in general. (Kelter, 2023) Many factors and studies are pointing out the possibility that the US power in world politics is being weakened. However, the circumstances under which the US hegemony will be challenged and weakened are yet to be studied. The inability of the US to stop Iran from developing its nuclear program, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China-Taiwan tensions, the failure of American troops in Afghanistan, the American failure to end the war in Syria, etc. demonstrate how US hegemonic power is in decline. This research will investigate economic, political, and social factors behind the fall of unilateralism with the US as the hegemon and the rise of pluralism with rising powers such as China, Brazil, India Russia, etc. There is no doubt that there are shifts in the structure of the international political system, as there was no international power in the new world order except the United States, and with the beginning of the twenty-first century, new international powers appeared looking for a major role in the new world order commensurate with the growth of its military and economic power, and this explains The United States is the dominant global power, but it is not alone. There is a return to new poles in the international system. 1.1.1. The Hegemonic Role Hegemony has had a big impact on history. It refers to one organization or group's dominance or leadership over others. Two historical examples that show how various powers can affect the world are the British Empire in the 19th century and the United States after World War II. Hegemony is fueled by a variety of interconnected sources of power. Economic strength is important because dominating economies frequently have power over international trade, capital flows, and financial institutions. Hegemonic states can influence the attitudes and interests of other countries thanks to their economic might. (Rosamond, 2020) 5 Hegemony also requires strong political power and military prowess. A hegemonic state has the power to influence world affairs thanks to its capacity to use force and forge coalitions. They can influence the choices and actions of other players in the international arena by creating agendas, negotiating treaties, and applying diplomatic pressure. The hegemonic role is further strengthened through soft power and cultural influence. Influencing attitudes, values, and cultural norms is a potent weapon for retaining power. Hegemonic states can use cultural exports, media sway, and the spread of ideas to affect the attitudes and behaviors of other countries. Hegemonic duties do not, however, come without difficulties and opposition. Emerging powers, regional alliances, and counter-hegemonic movements can all be very problematic. The emergence of alternative viewpoints and these changes in power dynamics frequently pose a threat to the status quo and cast doubt on the hegemonic power's legitimacy. Hegemonic functions have extensive ramifications. A dominant power may bring about economic gains and stability, but it may also result in power disparities and cultural uniformity. Hegemonic power may have an impact on or possibly take control of global governance and international organizations, creating concerns about equity, inclusion, and other countries' ability to exercise their sovereignty. (Ikenberry & Gohn, 2019) 1.1.2. Research questions The research questions revolve around two key questions. 1. Can China represent a threat to the US hegemony in world politics? In other words, due to several factors, it seems that the world is moving towards a multipolar world where the power to dominate international politics does not rest only on the nation, but rather on a group of rising powerful nations such as China or a group of nations such as BRICS Member States. 2. What are the economic, political, and social factors that are challenging the US hegemony in international politics? Indeed, when assessing power and influence in IR, Power is the standing that a state has in the world, and in this context, it means to the structure of forces that the state has created, including economic, political, and military power. It also refers to ideologies, the international system, and its organizational nature, as well as changes in international politics. Knowledge capabilities, technical inventions, the composition of civil society, and the size and scope of 6 international cooperation are also factors. The state's capacity to convey social, cultural, and political forces through its foreign policy, as well as the homogeneity of society and its ability to represent local social interests. The power of the state is the possibility or ability that the state can use to reach its national goals in international conflict, so power is the general energy of the state to control and control the actions of others. economic power is at the forefront of all analysis. Economic power is the foundation on which any other aspect of power is determined. Hence, an objective we intend to study is the economy of the US about other rising power and how effectively it can be used to advance the US political agenda in international politics. Along with the economy, social and political factors also play important roles. 1.1.3. Significant of the Research This research provides insight into the changes that took place in the new world to become from a unipolar to a multipolar world, and it also shows how the American hegemony declined in terms of political, economic, and geographical terms. and rise other powers in world order Such as the Chinese side and the Russian side becoming a multipolar world, which brought about changes in several global and regional aspects. In this study, I will try to anticipate the new global shape in light of the rise of new global powers. 1.1.4. Purpose of the Research The primary purpose of this research is to assess the challenges facing US unilateralism supremacy. In it, it should investigate economic, political, and social factors challenging US hegemony in international politics. This research aims to identify current dynamics and power transitions in International Relations to inspire academic and policy reflections on the topic. International politics is undergoing significant changes. Will make a difference on the international scene in the event of the emergence of new global powers and also anticipate what innovations and changes are likely to change and challenge the current order. Moreover, I hope that the findings of this study will help academics and policymakers better prepare for potential shifts in power and influence in international politics. 7 1.1.5. Scope of Research The focus point of the research revolves around the US and its influences on world politics and world governance and its retreats as a global power since the aftermath of the Cold War. In it, the study will be mostly restricted to the social, economic, and political interactions the US has with other nations as a superpower, on the other hand, and its relation with the rising powers such as China and Russia, on the other hand. The research will mostly be limited to the changing dynamics in International Relations. The internal dynamics and domestic politics that could also participate in shaping US foreign will not be considered. Only interactions the US has with other nations will be studied. 1.1.6. Limitation of research As for the limitation of the research, the work will be essentially desk work. Only secondary data and credible internet sources will be used. Accessibility to primary data will be challenging due to financial and time constraints. Therefore, access to some relevant data that require fieldwork may be difficult. 1.1.7. Hypotheses The research relies on the fact that Unilateralism as such led by the US hegemony is in decline in world politics due to many failures of the US foreign policy globally as well as due to the rising political rivalries from other powers. China is the biggest challenge of the US hegemony in international politics. 1.1.8. Research Method This is desk-based research analytical in nature. The researcher consulted and carefully examined secondary data sources including journal papers, databases, newspaper articles, blogs, monographs, and other online resources. Before being taken into consideration and qualitatively assessed for the study, these materials were subjected to content validity. Mainstream theories in International Relations were used to understand the new world order. 8 1.2. Theoretical and Conceptual Framework 1.2.1. Conceptual Framework: Defining key concepts. International relations (IR) encompass three interconnected but sometimes difficult concepts: multilateralism, bilateralism, and unilateralism. Bilateralism is centered on two states, unilateralism on one, and multilateralism on three or more, according to certain researchers (Keohane, 1990). The issue of global power transformation - in terms of power polarity - had been a seriously contentious issue amongst scholars of IR, especially since the end of the Cold War when the discourse began to speculate the nature of the forthcoming type of polarity after the world system had moved from bipolar to the unipolar system since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Certainly, unlike multilateralism, unilateralism is seen – as shown below- as an expression of a unipolar system, a foreign policy behavior of a hegemonic state of unilateral action. For multilateralism Given that "Multipolarity today can be represented not just by rivaling states as it was in the past, but by the emergence of ideas of global governance through international organizations (such as the United Nations) which compete with, and often constrain, the power of states," the distribution of power makes institutions' roles in the international system more important. (McGlinchey, Mathur and Acharya, 2022). In addition, multilateralism stresses the importance of values amongst groups of states sharing similar principles (Ruggie, 1992). Indeed, defining intricate concepts in international relations such as unilateralism, bilateralism, or multilateralism/pluralism is not straight forward. Different interpretations of various scholars have expressed mixed interpretations. For example, Ruth Wedgwood perceives unilateralism as those incidents where the powerful state disregards multilateral norms and assumes a self-centered foreign policy (Wedgwood, 2002). Williams Wallace, however, defines it in terms of power stages that decide how unilateral a state would behave. In due process, unilateralism is the favored strategy for the major powers and is more likely to be conducted by the hegemonic state (Wallace, 2002). However, despite different interpretations associated with the concept of unilateralism as such, they all principally agree that such concept is referred to a 9 sort of selfish uncooperative foreign policy behavior of a single dominant state to achieve its own interests without taking into considerations attitudes or opinions of other players whether states or non-state actors and institutions. For example, the war on Iraq in 2003 was launched and inspired by the United States without clear legitimate basis to support such action. It was driven by own claims that turned to be false especially as far as those accusations related to Iraqi’s possession of weapons of mass destruction. On the other hand, the concepts of Pluralism/ Multipolar system are very much corresponding to similar interpretations as far as international relations is concerned. Bipolarity, nonetheless, is seen an extraordinarily strong upcoming global system scenario to recall that during the Cold War period with China as a potential competitive global player in the short- medium range. Multipolar is also a very foreseeable scenario with the growing regional economic blocks (BRICS Member States) but maybe in the long run with less degree to take place sooner than bipolarism. 1.2.2. Theoretical Framework Most of America's closest friends have voiced concerns about the emergence of American unilateralism after the conclusion of the Cold War. This is the propensity for Washington to make choices without giving much thought to the interests or viewpoints of its own allies or the rest of the world. There is no denying that unilateralism has a distinguished tradition in American history. Isolationism has the benefit of allowing solo action. (Maynes, 1999) The decline of unipolarity in the international system has resulted in a topic of debate in the fields of international relations and political science. When analyzing the realist and liberal schools of the current situation, we find the following: Liberalism has ruled much of the world since World War II. Under the leadership of the United States and its allies, a sprawling international system was built around security cooperation and economic openness. (Haggard, 2013). At first glance, this context seems ideal, but the facts indicate that this system carries deep problems. Post-World War II Liberalism was not a global project, but part of a geopolitical anti-communist project. Built and developed this project within the Western world. In the early stages during the end of the forties and the 10 beginning of the fifties, most of the agreements regarding monetary policies and freedom of trade were between Britain and the United States only and then expanded later. When the Berlin Wall fell, this project spread outside the Western world, and the Libralism project became globalized. (Lamberton, 2019) Therefore, Britain and the United States, respectively, were considered the center of the first two waves of globalization, but most researchers agree that the third wave will be multipolar, and the new pole here is China. Liberalism, despite its refusal to recognize war, sees every point in the world as a potential place for war, motivated by the preservation of human rights, and then the irony is that wars increase under liberalism more than realism and from the reality of the foregoing. There are several other examples of the failure of American liberalism, including the American policy towards the Ukrainian crisis, which was motivated by liberal logic, and resulted in the current political crisis between Russia and the West. Also, since 1989, the United States has fought seven different wars in many regions of the world in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Vietnam, and others. (Lieber, 2019) The failure of the United States to understand the limits of liberalism, and the lack of realization of the nature of its relationship with nationalism and realism, is since Washington, in the end, could not spread its democratic model in countries such as Iraq and Afghanistan, but rather left them in a state of chaos that eventually led to the emergence of a group such as the terrorist organization “ISIS”. For not realizing the national character that makes up those countries, not to mention their political failure in front of Russian realism in the Ukrainian crisis, from which Europe is still suffering from its effects now, and therefore, the writer confirms that, contrary to the prevailing wisdom in the West, liberal foreign policy does not constitute a formula for cooperation and peace, but rather a means of conflict and instability. (Fisher, 2021) The realists' vision is based on the concept of "power" that determines the form of relations between states, and there is no such thing as morality or virtue in this system. The global system is a “chaotic” system that is not governed by a supreme authority that can be referred to, and the primary goal or goal of any state is “perpetuity of survival.” Since the system is chaotic, every state is subject to demise and domination by a stronger state. For the state to 11 maintain its survival and not disappear, it must possess the tools of force that deter any potential enemy and continue the continuous work to maximize power and weaken any potential opponent. (Cawkwell, 2006) This vision is based on the idea that man is evil and selfish by nature, and no one is safe from anyone except the power that deters others. This idea is summed up by the royal philosopher Thomas Hobbes - who is one of the founders of this school. Because war is not only on the battlefield, or the act of fighting, but rather breaks out over time when the will to compete in war becomes fully known. The idea is summed up in insecurity and that human beings are in a state of constant readiness for war and international relations remain suspicious and fearful of the domination of the strong over the weak, and that the agreements concluded between states are nothing but falsehoods and gossip, as Hobbes sees it. Realists worry about the "power transition" caused by the rise of China and the United States relative decline as they concentrate on changes in the balance of power. the theory says that the fall of a dominant superpower and the rise of a rising competitor often leads to war, and from here some experts are concerned about the possibility of war. Washington and Beijing are in the so-called "Thucydides Trap", the Greek historian who was the first to point out the risks involved when a rising power competes with another dominant power, as Germany challenged Britain in World War I a century ago. (Pan & Kavalski, 2022) 12 2. Chapter 2 Literature Review 2.1. New World Order The term "new world order" designates a new historical epoch that exhibits a major shift in both the balance of power in international relations and global political philosophy. Even though this term has been given many different interpretations, as far as new collaborative attempts are made to identify, comprehend, or deal with global challenges that are more complicated than those that can be handled by individual nation-states, it is most usually tied to the ideological idea of world government by great nations. The phrase "new world order" or similar phrasing was commonly used in Woodrow Wilson's vision for world peace, which called for the League of Nations to be established to prevent war and aggression. Harry S. Truman and Franklin Roosevelt never spoke in public about world peace and collaboration. Due to the League of Nations' collapse, Truman frequently used the phrase "new global order". (Luke, 1994) In actuality, Roosevelt often used the terms "new world order" or "new order in the world" to refer to the Axis powers' aspirations for global hegemony. In speeches by Truman, the terms "new world order" are less frequently used than the phrases "better world order," "peaceful world order," "moral world order," and "world order founded on law." Despite Roosevelt and Truman's reluctance to use the term, critics have referred to the order established by the World War II winners, including the United Nations and the Bretton Woods system, as the "new world order" in the past tense. (Theoharis, 1972). The most frequent usage of “new world order” in recent years happened during the Cold War's end. Presidents George H.W. Bush and Mikhail Gorbachev created the phrase to describe the post-Cold War period and the potential for great power collaboration. (Bender, 1991) Despite the vast and idealistic nature of Gorbachev's first plan, the internal problems with the Soviet system severely limited his ability to advocate for it. In contrast, Bush's perspective was neither more nor less constrained: "A thousand battles have raged throughout the history of humanity in the same way that countless generations have looked for this elusive road to peace. Currently, a world that is considerably different from the one we are used to is battling to exist. 13 Given the country's new unipolar position, Bush's claim that "there is no replacement for American leadership" was tenable. The 1991 Gulf War reflects a new world that is already beginning to appear, a world where the possibility of a new global order is very real. As a result, the Gulf War was the first major test of this new world. (Cole, 2002) In the 20th century, the idea of a new global order gained popularity three times. Woodrow Wilson tried to create a new international order after International War I, but he failed because neither the world nor the U.S. Senate was ready for his brand of idealism. Benjamin D. During World War II, Roosevelt envisioned a new global order that would guarantee more stability and peace through the creation of the United Nations (UN), but he viewed it as a body that would be based on great power collaboration. To combat Iraq's invasion of Kuwait on August 2, 1990, the George W. Bush administration turned to this vague notion again later in the century, during the Persian Gulf crisis (1990–1991). (Wills, 2008) 2.2. The New, New World Order The emergence of new power centers “The new, new world order” demanding a voice in the international system has been evident in the redistribution and diffusion of power. The speculation surrounding the preferred tactic of incumbent powers in response to the demands of emerging competitors has grown significantly. While some academics think it will be containment, others say it will be accommodation. (McEachern, 2015) An emerging power, a state or group of nations that have a significant and expanding influence in international affairs is sometimes referred to as a "rising power." Such a power aspires to have a bigger impact on world events, on a regional or global scale and has the resources and levels of development necessary to make such ambitions possible. The term "emerging power" has a limited number of conceptualizations. As a result, there are no established criteria by which to identify emerging powers. A basic trait of a rising power is that it also has a developing economy because political and military emergence depends on and precedes economic development (Emerging power jog jails to cloak the growing strength of China navy, 2019). 14 Although a nation may have the potential to become an emerging power, it is largely a developing economy with the hope or potential to grow its level of influence internationally. This is due, among other constraints, to the seven pillars of state power: geography, population, economy, resources, military, diplomacy, and national identity. Only great powers or superpowers have historically been successful across all seven facets of state authority. (Higuera & Simon, 2008) The BRICS (The name BRICS stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, five of the world's largest rising economies.). is frequently mentioned as emerging powers, yet they are in different phases of development and have different potentials. For instance, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia, which was once a superpower, is now reemerging in several areas of state power. Brazil is rising as a potential great power, while China and India are emerging as potential superpowers (Thakur, 2014). The BRICS countries, with a combined size of 39,746,220 km2 (15,346,100 sq mi) and a projected population of roughly 3.21 billion, make up around 26.7% of the planet's surface area and 41.5% of its population. In terms of population, area, and GDP, the top ten nations include Brazil, Russia, India, and China, which are also occasionally referred to as existing or future superpowers. With a total nominal GDP of US$26.6 trillion, or around 26.2% of the global GDP, and a total PPP GDP of US$51.99 trillion, or 32.1% of the world's PPP, respectively, are also available, and estimated combined foreign reserves of US$4.46 trillion, all five states are G20 members (as of 2018). (Patra & Panda, 2021). The BRICS were not a formal intergovernmental organization when they were first established; rather, their objective was to identify investment opportunities. Their governments meet formally each year at summits to coordinate multilateral policy, and since 2009, they have become a more coherent geopolitical bloc. (Stuenkel, 2021) On July 24, 2022, China held the most recent BRICS summit. The primary tenets of bilateral ties between the BRICS countries are non-interference, equality, and mutual gain). This notion of a stable, US-dominated international order was facing growing opposition by the late 1990s. On September 11, 2001, there were terrorist attacks., that made the negative effects of globalization more apparent. The experience of trying to conduct a "war" on 15 international terrorism and of using strong coercive force to govern less developed nations (as in Iraq or Afghanistan) made obvious the limitations of military power for attaining political goals. The conflict between Washington's rhetoric about democracy and human rights and its routine willingness to violate those rights in the name of national security (as with Guantanamo, Abu Ghraib, and the practice of so-called rendition of terrorist suspects) undermines U.S. claims to moral superiority. (Canterbury, 2021) And for many others, the Bush administration's unilateralism undermined the authority and acceptability of US leadership. The increasing diplomatic activism of significant rising nations was one of the most obvious indicators that something was going on. One notable example is the aggressive coalitional tactics of Brazil and India at the WTO, especially in light of the G20 coalition of developing nations that was established in Cancun in 2003 (also known as the Trade G20). It was resolved to put the Doha Development Agenda negotiations on hold until the requests of developing countries were addressed at the fifth Ministerial Conference of the WTO in Cancun in September 2003. The conversation came to a halt. Cancun exemplified the developing world's dissatisfaction with globalization and showed a stronger willingness to protect its interests against those of the developed world. This misery worldwide was first voiced by the growing powers of the developing world— Brazil, China, India, and South Africa—and many other developing countries quickly followed. Another one of these is the creation of IBSA, a project of cooperation between the three democratic nations of South Africa, Brazil, and India. The Brasilia Declaration, which was adopted in June 2003, effectively established the organization. Later, similar programs that promoted cooperation across several industries were launched. The BASICs (Brazil, South Africa, India, and China) provide a third example. This group ignored Europe and compelled the United States to participate in climate change negotiations in Copenhagen in December 2009 under completely different institutional conditions while ignoring Europe. (Piepenbrink, 2013) These incidents might not have drawn such attention on their own. Nevertheless, they revealed a deeper fundamental shift in the dynamics of global capitalism and the global economy 16 for many people. This phenomenon is captured by the notion of the BRICS. (Narbone & Divsallar 2021) At the beginning of the twenty-first century, they owned about 50% of the entire foreign exchange reserves in the world. Any remaining reliance on foreign aid had been reduced or abolished, and in the situations of China, India, and Brazil, these countries had even turned into significant donors. These new contributors contributed over US$11 billion in international aid in 2009. Furthermore, they had deepened their ties, with Sino-Indian commerce approaching US$60 billion annually and China surpassing the US as Brazil's main economic partner. When compared to global merchandise exports in 2010, South-South commerce accounted for 17.5% of the total, up from a negligible percentage in the early 1990s (Nistor, 2015). Around 2003, the language of the BRICS and other new and rising nations began to gain traction. The expansion of power and the development of new powers were prominent themes in both political rhetoric and popular commentary. These discussions focused on where the international order will be in the future rather than where it is right now. The BRICS were significant due to both their recent and quick development as well as the anticipated changes that would alter the global economy and the balance of economic power. These changes and attitudes were influenced by the financial crisis that struck the advanced capitalist core in 2007. The financial crisis's onset in the core Western nations was historically tremendously significant for many powerful figures. In addition to severely harming these economies, it also called into question the technological and moral leadership at the core of the world capitalism system. (Kuwayama, 2010) The crisis also supported the idea that international economic institutions needed to change to consider the shift in economic power. Brazil and India have long requested seats on the UN Security Council as well as changes to global economic organizations. Although UN reform had made little headway, the WTO saw significant change as Brazil and India joined the US, EU, and other major trading partners in the inner negotiation circle (the so-called "new Quad"), The enlargement of the G7 grouping of industrialized nations into the Group of 20 (G20), which would now include the main emerging countries, was seen by many as another significant symbolic move. (Cooper, 2016) 17 2.3. The New World Order of China In March 2021, in Beijing, in front of over 3,000 members of the National People's Congress, China's president declared victory over COVID-19. He attributed it to "self-confidence in our approach, theories, system, and society." He said, "Unlike us when we were young, today's young people can stand tall and feel proud when they go abroad" (Amighini, 2021). China was reclaiming its global leadership and significance, and its success in managing the new coronavirus gave Xi confidence that he was on the right course. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP)'s brief official history was released the next month, lending credence to his hypothesis. President Xi Jinping of China is credited with bringing his country "closer to the center of the global stage than it has ever been" and "closer to rebirth than it has ever been." China already has a key position in the global order. It boasts the biggest population and military in the world, is the greatest trading power and the most significant source of international finance, and has become a key innovation center. By 2030, the majority of experts predict that China's real GDP will surpass that of the United States, making it the biggest economy in the world. Furthermore, as the pandemic's development has shown, China's reaction to international problems has repercussions for the rest of the world. (Yang, 2016) They contend that Beijing's posture is largely defensive, seeking simply to accomplish a narrow range of sovereignty claims and to defend its political system from criticism. That viewpoint ignores the scope of Xi's objective. His idea of China's centrality goes beyond merely making sure that the nation's relative importance or influence within the current international order is accurately expressed. It refers to a radically transformed world order. The unified and resurgent China, in Xi's perspective, would be equal to or greater than the United States. As the most powerful nation in Asia, China now controls disputed territories in the East and South China Seas, expanding its maritime domain. To take back its rightful position as an Atlantic power, the US withdrew across the Pacific. In addition, a Chinese system of communication, bargaining, and collaboration is currently being suggested, which is leading to the disintegration of the robust network of US alliances that has been the primary pillar of the 18 international system for close to seventy years. Infrastructure including ports, trains, and military installations, as well as fiber-optic connections, e-payment systems, and satellites, all contribute to China's global impact. Much as their American, European, and Japanese counterparts did in the previous century, Chinese corporations are vying for the top spot in building the world's infrastructure in the twenty-first century. China's economic might is skillfully used by Xi to both encourage and force compliance with his plans. (Xu, G, Dong, Xu, & Bhattarai, 2022) The emergence of a China-centric government with its laws and values is reflected and strengthened by this change in the geostrategic environment. The liberal democracies that emerged in the aftermath of the war were largely responsible for reshaping the post–World War II international order. These democracies have always been committed in theory to equality for all people, the legal order, free market capitalism, and minimal government intervention in their citizens' political and social life, even though they did not always achieve these goals perfectly. Technology was frequently used in the creation of multilateral organizations and international law to promote these ideals and norms. On the other hand, xi wants to replace such ideas with state dominance. For example, modern technology contributed to combating the Coronavirus in China, where it was able to contain the disease even though it is the source of the epicenter of the epidemic, through the use of high technology 5G, drones, and robots. Institutions, rules, and technologies in this new world order expand governmental control, curtail personal freedoms, and stifle free markets. It is a society in which the government controls the flow of capital and information both domestically and internationally. In this reality, there is no independent check or counterbalance to the authority of the state. (Wang, 2006) Leaders and academics in China are adamant that the rest of the world agrees with Xi's vision, exclaiming, "The East is rising, and the West is declining!" However, many nations appear to be losing interest once the full political and economic ramifications of adopting the Chinese model become apparent, in Xi's audacious goals. Xi exuded the confidence of a leader who is certain that the world is his to claim at the People's Congress. His certainty, though, can prove to be a liability because it might keep him from understanding the opposition Beijing is igniting through its operations in other nations. Xi's success is dependent on his ability to react 19 and deal with the fallout. Failure to do so may result in more miscalculations that reshape the global world system, but not in Xi's manner envisions. (Zhang, 2020) 2.3.1. Taiwan Issue China's annexation of Taiwan in any form, by force, is a settled matter, and there is no separation in the name of China “Taiwan is the main red line for China.” (Person, 2022) Since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949, with the victory of the Communists and the retreat of the nationalists to Taiwan, China has avoided entering a direct and overt military confrontation with Taiwan, and the strait separating the two sides has been a site of recurring crises and permanent tensions. But China has always - until recently - put limits on these tensions. Convinced that the most appropriate approach to resolving the Taiwan issue and restoring the country's unity is "peaceful reunification" and strengthening its economic, cultural, and social relations with the island. (Ceng & Chen, 1990) In addition to the sweeping national feeling that neither the ruling Communist Party nor any Chinese president can challenge or reverse direction; There are geopolitical and geoeconomic dimensions that link Taiwan with the continuation of the process of China's rise as a superpower in the international system. As the island enjoys enormous natural resources and a distinct industrial structure, especially in the technological field, as well as its strategic location in East Asia overlooking the Pacific Ocean and the North and South China Seas; It makes it very crucial to the consolidation of China's military and economic influence in Asia. (Shang, 2001) And for the same powerful strategic advantages that are decisive for the struggle for international leadership, it is not easy for the United States to abandon Taiwan and make it easy prey for China, even if it is in its weakest condition. Instead of using a military solution, Beijing isolated Taipei internationally and offered economic incentives to Taiwan's allies to agree to abandon it. Additionally, it applied the "One China" policy and undermined Taipei's influence in international institutions by using its rising economic strength. Although Chinese officials have always maintained that they have the right to use force, this option has seemed off the table over the past decades. With the arrival of President Xi Jinping to the reins of power in China, he did not rebel against this policy, but he appeared unwilling to proceed with it indefinitely. And with time, he seemed determined to resolve this issue during his reign. In 2017, for example, 20 President Xi declared that "complete national reunification is an inescapable condition for realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation," thus linking Taiwan's future to his core political platform. (Maizland, 2023) The controversial visit of "Nancy Pelosi" to Taiwan raised a very disturbing state of tension between the two powers. Beijing received Biden's steps of escalation, especially Pelosi's visit as an American green light for Taiwan to adhere to secession, and to deviate from the one-China policy that Washington has clung to since the 1970s. China's response came with escalatory military and economic steps against Taiwan. (Team, 2022) China's violent escalation suggested to many that China's annexations were turning into a contract with each other. Some reinforce his perceptions of the Ukrainian War, which was written a successful Chinese military move toward Taiwan that could change the military balance of power in Asia. If China succeeds in seizing the island through a rapid and intense war, it will be able to absorb Taiwan's strategic resources, such as military equipment, personnel, semiconductor industry, and every resource that would enhance Beijing's military power. The most important thing is that China will be able to establish important military equipment on the island, specifically air and coastal defense systems, as well as underwater monitoring devices, which will impede future US military operations in the Philippine Sea. It is an area of vital importance in any possible future conflict between Washington and Beijing. All these theoretical assumptions may be reinforced if the scenario of Chinese military intervention takes place, and Beijing may be able to reap unprecedented geopolitical advantages. On the Western level, this obsession seems to have become present and strong. In his testimony before the US Senate Armed Forces Committee in 2021, Admiral Philip Davidson, commander of the US Command in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, warned that Beijing might try to seize Taiwan in the next six years. These fears have been strengthened since the beginning of the Ukrainian war, and there are US fears that China will take advantage of the international situation, and the world's involvement with Ukraine, to move militarily towards Taiwan. General Mark Milley, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, considered in August 2021 that China's dramatic military rise amounted to a "strategic earthquake" and that it was one of the biggest changes in geostrategic dominance in recorded history. (Yeung, 2022) 21 Reasons why China is not likely to resort to the military option against Taiwan: Adhering to the "strategic patience" approach: Contrary to the popular image of China as eager for war, Beijing has shown strategic patience in pursuing its objectives in other conflict zones. The conflict in the South China Sea is a clear example in this regard. Instead of resorting to the military option, Beijing built and militarized seven sand islands without sparking a war with Washington or its regional rivals. China has also tended to exploit its economic and diplomatic influence in Africa, Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East. To gain international support on controversial issues, which is called a "gray zone tactic". (Pawlak, 2022) Benefiting from the Ukrainian war: The lesson that China is likely to draw from the current Ukrainian war is that any current military move similar to what Russia has taken under the leadership of President Putin will not pass without Western military and economic punishment, which, no matter how China can confront it, will be costly. At a delicate stage in the global economy. The most critical point is that no matter how confident the Chinese military is in their ability to launch a military adventure in Taiwan, the war is unpredictable, and conducting an amphibious military operation is more complicated than the ground military intervention carried out by Putin's forces in Ukraine. In light of the foregoing, and if the military option is excluded, at least theoretically for the time being, China will have several other options to deal seriously and intensively with the Taiwan crisis, as follows: (Detsch & Gramer, 2023) Continue to exert economic pressure: Taiwan's economy depends mainly on trade with China, as it is the island's largest trading partner, bypassing the United States. In 2021, China (along with Hong Kong) accounted for 42% of Taiwan's exports, while the share of the United States was only 15%. Immediately after Pelosi's visit, China moved to impose economic sanctions on Taiwan; It included a ban on entering the country for more than one hundred Taiwanese food products. Taiwan can no longer import sand from China, which the construction industry relies on. this research finds that over the past years, Beijing pressured many countries of the developed world not to sign free trade agreements with Taiwan, and two countries deviated from this Chinese desire, namely New Zealand and Singapore. The Comprehensive and Advanced Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) are two global trade blocs that Beijing has wanted Taiwan to be excluded from. (Youell, 2023) 22 Preparing the geographical area and practicing “psychological warfare”: China’s current exclusion of the military option does not mean stopping any military practice, as it seems clear that it wants to wage a “psychological war” on Taiwan, besiege it with military equipment, and bring military exercises and maneuvers to the stage of “sowing terror.” in the hearts of Taiwan," and showing Washington's inability to protect its ally. These moves also prepare the geographical space for China in case it decides to intervene militarily in the future. In the framework of preparing the geographical area in the region, Beijing has been keen to provide military assistance to all four Pacific Island countries. Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Tonga, and Vanuatu. Beijing has also tended to normalize its military presence in the region through increased non-military activities by the People's Liberation Army, such as disaster response and humanitarian aid. For instance, in the early months of 2022, a volcano explosion and tsunami ravaged Tonga, and the People's Liberation Army Navy and Air Force both participated in delivering aid there. China also sent riot gear and provided police training in the Solomon Islands after the unrest of 2021. This gives Beijing stronger and more entrenched political and military influence in the Pacific. (Amber, 2023) It seems from time to time that China is ready to engage in an imminent military adventure in Taiwan, as indicated by the statements of its official officials. However, Beijing's political experience, and its political and military strategy for managing its crises, suggest that China is still trying to avoid the "military option", in parallel with preparing for it in the future, and preparing the international stage, so that if China decides to intervene militarily in Taiwan, its fate will not be like Russia's now, but rather Beijing would have the upper hand in this scene, without the United States being able to harm or block it. (Person, 2022) China's annexation of Taiwan is something that will certainly happen overall. In the short term, the balance of power with Washington in particular stands as a heavy obstacle to the annexation scenario. However, what can be asserted is that the US-Chinese conflict over Taiwan has entered a dangerous escalatory turn that reflects within it the equation of balance of power, and also carries with it a definite Chinese annexation of Taiwan in the future through a definite armed conflict that China will engage in when it is completely certain of victory. 2.3.2. Asia-Pacific Case 23 China is putting a lot of effort into building the foundation that will allow it to surpass the United States as the dominant player in the Asia-Pacific region. The Asia-Pacific area is portrayed by Chinese leaders as being perfectly integrated thanks to Chinese-driven trade, technology, and common cultural and civilizational links. They refer to the region as a "big family" and assert that " China cannot advance independently from the area.” and that "the region cannot prosper without China."Particularly fruitful for Xi has been the effort to position China as the region's leading economic force. (Kavalski, 2012) China is practically all of Asia's primary economic partner, and ASEAN will overtake China as its biggest trading partner in 2021. President Xi successfully ended the negotiations for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) by the end of 2020. The RCEP was led by China and comprised eleven nations in Southeast Asia in addition to China, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea. Under Xi, China's involvement in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free-trade agreement backed by Japan, has also expanded. As a result, China would control the two most important regional trade agreements in the region with the greatest economic growth. Leaving the United States out of the picture. The US has long played the leading security player in the area; China has had less success in trying to assume that position. In 2014, Beijing proposed a new security framework for Asia that would be administered by Asian nations. China’s defense minister has extensively visited the Asia-Pacific area he has pleaded with countries to "Adhere to the notion that regional concerns should be resolved through consultation among regional countries." Chinese authorities have also put a lot of effort into portraying US alliances as antiquated Cold War remnants that are hostile to China. (Haggard, 2013) A new trilateral security agreement was established between Australia, the UK, and the USA because of China's actions. As a response to China's efforts, several European countries, notably France, Germany, and the Netherlands, as well as NATO, have boosted their security participation in the Asia-Pacific area. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, who previously pledged to end his country's relationship with the US and referred to China as a "wonderful buddy," is now increasing defense cooperation with Washington even as he prepares to leave office. (Katzenstein & Okawara, 2001). 24 2.3.3. Belt and Road Initiative China's goal of dominance on the international scene is appropriately clear by the Belt and Road Initiative. In addition to giving Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa physical access to China through three land-based and three maritime corridors, the initiative, which was launched in 2013, also brings back memories of the Silk Road and China's imperial era centrality. The BRI was initially supposed to be a means of advancing hard infrastructure along the six corridors under Chinese leadership. The so-called digital, health, and polar Silk Roads, to which all nations are welcomed, are modern BRI offshoots. China is a one-stop shop for funding infrastructure, in contrast to earlier international organizations like the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. Additionally, it frequently ignores time-consuming financial risk assessments, transparent and open bidding processes, and examinations of the repercussions for the environment and society. It provides the money, labor, and materials for its projects. It is the expansion of China's growth model internationally. (Yang, 2016) China is now at the center of the international system owing to the Belt and Road Initiative, which has a global reach in terms of its physical, financial, cultural, technological, and political influence. developing new bridges, fiber-optic cables, 5G networks, trains, and ports that might eventually host Chinese military outposts, it is redrawing even the smallest elements of the international map. One estimate has the BRI's current geographic scope at more than sixty nations and Chinese investment of more than $200 billion. The BRI is transforming certain countries, including Pakistan, with energy initiatives, brand-new roads, and a huge upgrade to its digital and Gwadar port facilities. Others have had far more limited but advantageous exposure. Chinese investment, for instance, has helped Greece's port of Piraeus rank among the top fifty ports in the world and among the best in Europe. Brazilian government representatives and academics are excited about the BRI's potential to enhance innovation and environmental initiatives as well as infrastructure projects in their nation. (Zhang, 2020) The BRI is another way that Xi wants to use the BRI to spread China's political and cultural objectives. Beijing currently offers a variety of political training programs after Xi 25 highlighted China's growth model as one that is worthy of imitation in a significant address in October 2017. Tanzania, having patterned its cybersecurity law after Chinese law and cooperating with Beijing to manage the flow of information on the Internet and social media, is a BRI pilot nation for the growth of Chinese political capabilities. Chinese technology and training have greatly aided the governments of other nations, like Uganda, in their efforts to track and monitor members of the political opposition. The CCP has also provided training on its structure to political parties in Sudan, South Africa, and Ethiopia. relations with the general public, and other topics, likewise the Chinese propaganda apparatus. (XU, 2019) To communicate Chinese political and cultural principles, China's Digital Silk Road, which includes, among other things, underwater cables, e-payment platforms, security tools, and 5G networks is particularly crucial. For instance, Beijing provided tens of thousands of hours of Chinese television to over 10,000 people in Kenya in addition to satellite television. Airways in Kenya and other African nations are currently overrun with documentaries that support a CCP political narrative, martial arts movies, plays about life in China, and plays that contain subtitles in regional languages. However, The BRI is becoming rougher and rougher. Although it can deliver the advantages of China's infrastructure-focused growth model, it also delivers all of the negative side effects, including high debt levels, corruption, pollution, environmental degradation, and poor labor standards. Public protests have been widespread in the host nations. Citizens of Kazakhstan have regularly demonstrated against Chinese mining activities and businesses that harm the environment and recruit Chinese labor rather than locals. Similar protests have also occurred in Papua New Guinea, Cambodia, and Zambia. (Rogelja & Tsimonis, 2023) Other countries have mentioned corruption problems in their BRI projects, including Cameroon, Indonesia, Kenya, and Pakistan. Azerbaijan and Mongolia are two countries that no longer think the advantages of their BRI projects would ever outweigh the costs. Projects have been delayed or abandoned by several nations; of the fifty-two coal-fired power plants that were supposed to be built under the BRI between 2014 and 2020, 25 have been put on hold, and eight have been scrapped. (China's September 2021 pledge to refrain from building new coal-fired 26 power plants outside of China raises the possibility that many of the projects that have been put off may be abandoned.) Beijing is reevaluating its BRI commitments. Since 2016, investment levels have been steadily declining, and some of the anticipated political benefits have not yet materialized. For instance, an analysis of the top 10 BRI beneficiaries shows no correlation between investment levels and support for China from other nations on important problems like Hong Kong, the South China Sea, and Chinese activities in Xinjiang. Like China's territorial expansionism, the BRI has provoked opposition. It has pushed Japan and other nations to start innovative competitions to finance and maintain infrastructure with better standards and more incentives for local labor. Other initiatives to broaden Chinese cultural influence are also struggling. (Maçães, 2018) For instance, through the construction of Confucius Institutes in international colleges and classrooms, xi has advocated for the acceptance of the Chinese language and Chinese cultural offerings. For many educational institutions, the ability of Beijing to support them financially was essential for them to be able to offer Chinese language education. They swiftly spread as a result. The initiative's undercurrent of greater force, meanwhile, hurt its initial success. In 2011, Li Changchun, who was at the time a member of the Politburo Standing Committee, said, "The Confucius Institute is an appealing brand for expanding Chinese culture abroad."It has significantly aided in the development of our soft power. China, because of spreading its culture, has increased its influence and acceptance by others. (Chen & Qian, 2016) The 1,000 Confucius Institutes China aimed to establish by 2020 are just slightly more than half complete. Additionally, their soft power is not extraordinarily strong one. According to a poll, 71% of people in Africa, where China has established 61 Confucius Institutes, believe that English is the language that future generations need to learn the most, followed by French (14%), Chinese (2%), and English (14%). Only one in every six Kazakhs, according to a survey conducted by the Eurasian Development Bank, believe China to be a "friendly country" despite the former prime minister's daughter being a staunch supporter of China and Chinese-language education in Kazakhstan. Initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative Although the Confucius Institutes portray a desirable image of Chinese prominence that has been somewhat undermined by undesirable 27 Chinese governance methods, much of Beijing's attempt to push Chinese centrality is blatantly coercive. For many people, China's pandemic diplomacy revealed the coercive character of Chinese attempts to change the globe, for instance. The production of personal protection equipment (PPE) was militarized by China's "Wolf Warrior" diplomats by threatening to cut off supply to nations who were hostile to China. To deflect attention from Chinese culpability, they also launched an attempt to disseminate false information about the virus's origins. Beijing slapped restrictions and tariffs on some of the nation's most popular products in response to Australia's call for an investigation into the virus's origins. (Larsen, 2021) It has been well-documented how China exerts pressure on other countries. If they did not officially recognize Chinese sovereignty claims over Hong Kong, the South China Sea, and Taiwan, Beijing warned the global aviation, retail, cinema, and hotel sectors with severe financial repercussions. Chinese oppression is the most prevalent and successful in influencing the conduct of specific actors. Many international corporations changed their business operations in response to Chinese criticism. Others, on the other hand, appear to submit to Chinese demands while secretly attempting to uphold their principles. For instance, several airlines no longer list Taiwan on their websites but continue to differentiate it from the mainland and provide ticket prices in Taiwanese currency rather than yuan. Importantly, China has largely failed in attempting to change the policies of nations like the Philippines and South Korea through economic pressure, among others, on issues such as rivalry in the South China Sea and the installation of the THAAD missile system, which was produced in the US. Beijing also failed in its attempt to use the imprisonment of two Canadian citizens as political pressure in the case of Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer of the Chinese telecoms company Huawei, to evade Canada's judicial system. Before her case was concluded, Meng was finally put under house arrest for close to three years. China's influence on the world stage is mostly due to its robust economy, which serves as both a catalyst for commerce and growth on a global scale as well as a gateway for other nations to enter its sizable market. But worries about how China's economy will interact with the rest of the world are growing as a result of Xi's initiatives. 28 Numerous initiatives, including Made in China 2025, that bolster governmental control and seek to shield the Chinese economy from outside competition have come to characterize his leadership. In 2020, Xi proposed the "dual circulation" economic model, which envisioned a mostly self-sufficient China capable of producing, consuming, and inventing within its economy. Through exports, essential supply networks, and small imports of money and expertise, it would continue to be connected to the global economy. Xi has significantly strengthened the CCP's control over Chinese enterprises' ability to make decisions within China. (Choudhury, 2023) Beijing's international relations now face a new set of difficulties as a result of these deviations from more extensive economic reform and opening. Many nations have lost trust Chinese enterprises now have less access to their markets, and the government is tightening export regulations on vital technologies for Chinese businesses. Beijing's demand for PPE at the beginning of the outbreak aroused concerns about dependency on Chinese supply chains, which prompted other countries to encourage their enterprises to relocate to friendlier countries or return home. Although Xi's policies are lowering rather than boosting the regularity and predictability that economic actors strive for when determining where to invest their time and money, the Chinese economy continues to be attractive as a market and a leader in international commerce and investment, creating new difficulties for Xi's goal of making China the world's economic center. Xi also wants more control over the current international structure of international organizations. He has regularly and openly encouraged China to take the lead in changing the international governance system by harmonizing it with Chinese values and standards. According to him, the existing rules-based framework does not effectively represent China's or the perspectives of developing nations, according to other Chinese leaders. Instead, it was established and preserved to support a select group of liberal democracies. Xi wants these institutions to uphold Chinese principles and practices, such as putting development rights ahead of Individual political and civic rights as well as the creation of technological standards that provide information flow management by the government. China's strategy and tactics complement one another. Even when they go against the objectives of the global organizations they support; Chinese officials are taught to uphold Chinese national interests. For instance, in 2020, the International Civil Aviation Organization's 29 Twitter account blocked users who favored Taiwan joining the organization. Another incident occurred in 2017, when Dolkun Isa, an internationally recognized Uyghur activist, was not allowed to speak at the UN Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues without being forcibly restrained. Chinese representative Wu Hongbo, who is also the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs' Undersecretary-General, later claimed blame for Isa's exclusion on Chinese media, stating, "We must zealously protect the motherland's interests." In a similar vein, the Le Monde, a French daily, said in 2019 that Beijing had threatened to stop Uruguayan and Brazilian agricultural exports if those nations did not back China's candidate for the Food and Agriculture Organization's director general. Xi is also dedicated to a long-term strategy to change broader international standards.in ways that increase state control over personal freedoms and rights in areas like Internet governance, human rights, and technological standards. (Han & Liu, 2023) China has flooded meetings with Chinese participants, sought leadership posts in the relevant institutions and supporting committees for Chinese officials or other sympathetic actors and invested a lot of money to influence the topics and conclusions of policy debates in each of these areas. Over time, the strategy has proven effective. The UN is now developing and considering Chinese proposals, for instance, that support state control over the information flow to every network-connected device. Additionally, xi has made it clear that he is determined to lead the development of standards in fields where they are not yet completely developed, such as space, the Arctic, and the marine spheres. Xi has already made audacious moves in the Arctic to increase China's participation in determining the destiny of the region. Despite being nine hundred miles from the Arctic Circle, China has generated hundreds of scholars who have researched the region. In addition, China has funded several research stations in the region and fostered cooperative study and exploration with Arctic nations. China is by far the most active of the Arctic Council's observer countries, supporting scientific conferences, submitting papers for evaluation, and volunteering to sit on committees. Xi has attempted to assert China's rights in the Arctic decision-making process by referring to China as a "near Arctic power" and recasting the Arctic as a global commons problem requiring dialogue among a diverse range of governments. (Babones, 2017) However, Aggression has a price, like other facets of Chinese foreign policy. China has made strides toward being more involved in the creation of Arctic standards, but it has also fallen 30 behind as Arctic nations have grown less open to Chinese investment owing to security concerns. Nations have joined forces, for instance, to stop UN organizations and programs from adopting the BRI into their mission statements or schedules automatically. They are banding together to promote candidates for leadership positions in UN agencies and other international organizations who are committed to openness, transparency, and the rule of law. In the first month of the COVID-19, the World Health Organization was reluctant to approach China about its lack of transparency epidemic is one example of how China looks to be overly influencing or undermining best practices. (Laihui, 2022) Grandiose ambition drives China's aim to alter the global system. The liberal international system that arose after World War II, the democratic alliance system, and the global leadership of the United States are all firmly established. Chinese authorities nonetheless insist that the two centuries before that, when China did not lead the world economy, were an aberration in history. They claim that America's influence is waning. Former vice minister of international affairs He Yafei claimed that " the conclusion of the American Century or Pax Americana “, is near." Beijing is widely thought to be on track for victory by both Chinese authorities and foreign observers. Shen Dingli, a renowned professor at Fudan University, claims that China is seizing taking the "moral high ground" in the world community and serving as "the leading nation in the new era.” China’s rejuvenation, according to Xi, is a "historic inevitability." There is reason to be optimistic, according to Xi. In each of the areas he identified as essential for change, China has unmistakably advanced, while internal turmoil and a lack of global leadership have hurt the United States' reputation and influence. (Wang, 2006) The international community still recalls Beijing's aggressive military actions, even though Xi's optimistic evaluation of China's pandemic response may be highly welcomed at home. coercive PPE policies, bullying diplomacy, persecution in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, and continuous belligerence in trying to track down the virus's sources. Public opinion polls show that despite Xi's wish for China to be perceived as "dependable, lovable, and respectable" by the foreign community, his actions have resulted in record-low levels of confidence in him and little desire for the Chinese leadership. Several initiatives aimed at securing Chinese centralities, such as the Belt and Road Initiative, Confucius Institutes, and global governance leadership, are either 31 sputtering or ceasing as the full economic and political repercussions of adopting Chinese leadership become clear to the rest of the world. The rest of the world may likewise be excused for wondering what Xi wants besides centrality. He has made it plain that he wants China to have a significant influence on the creation of the rules that will govern the international system. However, Under Donald Trump's administration, the United States lost its position as the world's preeminent power, and Xi showed a reluctance or incapacity to fill that void by leading the international community or acting as the world's police officer. China could just want to take advantage of the privileges that come with being the most powerful nation in the world, without taking on all the associated obligations. The goal of Chinese dominance on the international stage is undesirable to a generous portion of the rest of the globe, and given the present atmosphere of growing international resistance, an absolute success for Xi seems doubtful. The repercussions for the global community might be just as painful if Xi finds that his plan is failing as it could be if he succeeds. By suppressing China's top-tier technology industry, destroying the remaining vestiges of democracy in Hong Kong, and highlighting China's military strength with a hypersonic missile launch, xi has recently astounded world leaders. Furthermore, there is a considerable likelihood that even more unstable actions, including employing force to unite with Taiwan, might occur. While Xi has already shown a readiness to take dangerous military action in the East and South China Seas, as well as near India's border, he has yet to propose a calm future for union with the island nation. (Laihui, 2019) Xi has responded to major diplomatic headwinds by upping the stakes. Except for issues like climate change that do not threaten his main political and strategic objectives, he is reluctant to restrain his ambition. An ideal, albeit still improbable, the end result would be for Xi to engage in a number of ongoing and implicit internal tradeoffs, such as claiming regional economic leadership while reversing military aggression in the region, taking pride in stopping the spread of COVID-19 while admitting the limitations of Chinese vaccine innovation, and so on. Another example would be beginning the process of releasing "reeducated" Uyghur Muslims from labor camps while proclaiming victory in the elimination of terrorist acts in Xinjiang. By doing this, xi would be able to continue to portray himself as having succeeded in advancing Chinese hegemony while also attending to the most pressing concerns of the international 32 community. The interaction of several elements, notably the viability of the Chinese military and economy, will determine if Xi can accomplish his dream, as well as the ability of the world to continue resisting Chinese pressure as well as the ability of other countries and the world's democracies to formulate and pursue their compelling vision of the future, on the one hand, and the backing of other top leaders and the Chinese people, on the other. The capacity of Xi to comprehend and manage the significant disconnect between what he wants to offer the world and what the world needs from him will likely be the most important factor in his success. (Rogelja & Tsimonis, 2023) 2.4. Important Books and Publications on the “New” New World Order"Stepping away from the abyss: a gradual approach towards a new security system in the Persian Gulf (2021) The most comprehensive recently published book on the balance of power and power transition in International Politics and Security is "Stepping Away from the Abyss: a gradual approach towards a new security system in the Persian Gulf (2021)". The inability of the US to play a leadership role in mediating and resolving security issues in the Persian Gulf allowed other actors to control, influence, and advance their agendas in the region, worsening the fragile security situation in the region and the world in general (European University Institute., 2021). The Russo-Ukrainian War, which had started in 2014, was substantially escalated on February 24, 2022, when Russia attacked Ukraine. Since World War II, Europe has seen the worst refugee crisis as a result of the invasion. is likely to have caused tens of thousands of deaths. Eight million people were reportedly internally displaced by late May, and 7.8 million Ukrainians were reportedly out of the nation by November 8, 2022. Russian emigration reached its highest level since the October Revolution of 1917 within five weeks of the invasion. Another effect of the invasion is a lack of food. During the 2014 Ukrainian Revolution, Russia annexed Crimea, and paramilitaries supported by Russia took 33 control of a portion of the Donbas region in southeast Ukraine, which includes the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. An internal conflict arose as a result. Russian forces launched a significant military buildup along their border with Ukraine in March 2021, and by the end of the year, they had 190,000 soldiers and their weaponry in place. Up to the day of the invasion, despite the buildup, several Russian government spokespeople denied making any preparations to invade or attack Ukraine. Russia acknowledged the two Donbass quasi-states that had declared their independence on February 21, 2022. the People's Republic of Luhansk and the People's Republic of Donetsk. After receiving permission from the Russian Federation Council to use force, the Russian military entered both areas the next day. The invasion has faced broad, vehement resistance. The UN General Assembly approved a resolution denouncing the invasion and demanding a complete withdrawal of Russian troops. Russian military activities were halted by the International Court of Justice, and Russia was ejected from the Council of Europe. Several governments imposed economic sanctions on Russia and its ally Belarus, which had an impact on the economy of both countries. By August 2022, more than $80 billion in military and humanitarian assistance had been sent to Ukraine by forty different countries. Around the world, there were protests; in Russia, they were greeted with further media restrictions, such as a prohibition on the phrase’s "war" and "invasion," as well as mass arrests. In reaction. More than a thousand firms have departed Russia and Belarus in response to the invasion. The International Criminal Court has been looking into the war crimes committed during the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 since 2013. By default, the worsening security situation in the Persian Gulf demonstrates that the role of the US as a power in international politics is questionable. Another event the book failed to predict is the ongoing Ukrainian crisis. The Ukrainian crisis gives us more reason to think that there are profound power shifts in International Politics and security. As a leading country in international politics, the US failed to improvise the crisis. Despite much economic and political support given to Ukraine, it also failed to provide a solution to the crisis. The United States has given Ukraine assistance of more than $7.3 billion since 2014, including funds for both security- and non-security-related projects. Three US guarantees for $3 billion sovereign loans were also included. The majority of the humanitarian help going to Ukraine 34 comes from the United States. Since Russia's original invasion of Ukraine eight years ago, the United States has already sent almost $653 million in humanitarian aid to the region's most impoverished communities, including roughly $302 million this year. (Pawlak, 2022). But the war does not seem to end anytime soon. 2.4.1. Globalization and the changing liberal international order: A Review of the Literature According to Amadi (2020), Globalization which facilitated the rise of the US as a superpower worldwide is also the leading cause of the decline of US hegemony in world politics. The US-China trade war, the rise of trade protectionism and the fall of multilateralism, and the withdrawal of the US from many International agreements such as the Iran nuclear program are all signs that US hegemony is declining. Since China's economic reforms began in the late 1970s, goods commerce between the US and China has significantly increased. After China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, trade dramatically surged, with the US and China emerging as the two largest trading partners. The US has continuously imported more items from China than it has exported, pushing the two countries' bilateral trade deficit in goods to $375.6 billion in 2017. The US government has periodically questioned a number of aspects of US-China business ties, including the significant bilateral trade imbalances and China's relatively fixed currency rates. China was reportedly selling these items at below-market costs, therefore the administrations of George W. Bush and Barack Obama slapped quotas and taxes on Chinese textiles to protect American textile companies in the US. But the article failed to mention that other factors that are not merely political can also significantly impact hegemony. When COVID-19 occurred, the US was the most affected country in the world, with the highest death toll. The event demonstrated US internal inefficiencies and weaknesses. The US economy has been significantly harmed by the COVID-19 outbreak, which has had a detrimental impact on employment, shipping, financial markets, tourism, and other sectors. Consumer and company measure that restrict the virus' exposure and spread, as well as government initiatives to do the same (including at the Federal and State levels), can be blamed 35 for the outcomes. The real GDP fell by 3.5% in 2020, the first decline since the Financial Crisis of 2008. Millions of jobs were lost, which resulted in a record-breaking number of claims for unemployment insurance over several weeks. Numerous companies, most notably restaurants, closed their doors as consumer and retail activity declined. To stop the spread of COVID-19 in the workplace, several companies and workplaces switched to remote work. One of the legislations passed by Congress in 2021 to provide stimulus and alleviate the effects of job losses and company closures is the American Rescue Plan Act. In order to maintain the stability of the financial markets and stimulate the economy, the Federal Reserve lowered its target for the federal funds rate to almost zero and implemented a number of liquidity tools. Inflation started to rise to levels last seen in the 1980s in late 2021. The employment situation before lockdowns was mirrored according